But while Russia's conventional forces are less impressive than its nuclear forces, there are specific conventional areas where the Russians excel among them aircraft, air defenses, submarines, and electronic warfare. In reality, civilians would know in advance if a nuclear weapon would be potentially detonated, giving some enough time to seek shelter. Tactical nuclear forces are smaller warheads that are used on the battlefield. One factor that is likely to play a major role in future warfare is artificial intelligence - AI. Their targets are tanks,. There's nothing ordinary about Cold Response 2020. An expansion of the war to NATO remains unlikely but possible; the Russian use of nuclear weapons remains unthinkable but not at all impossible. A 2020 test of a ground-based intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk facility in northwestern Russia. Almost any imaginable conflict, however, would end up including the United States and very likely Japan, and would thus constitute a great power war. Russia launches the remainder of its nukes, this time with an eye toward destruction of anything that could contribute to the war effort. If it happens, a Russian invasion of Ukraine would almost certainly be a bloody affair with many casualties and widespread destruction, experts say. What Would a NATO-Russia War Really Look Like? Up goes the budget for digital technology, artificial intelligence and cyber. And those next five to 10 years could well see some of the most dangerous challenges to Western security. Plan A shows how a localized nuclear exchange could quickly escalate into a global catastrophe. Russian air force Su-30MKI fighter jet takes off during the MAKS-2015 International Aviation and Space Show in Zhukovsky, outside Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2015. The Ukraine War Has Already Begun - and It's Unlike Any You've Seen Before The hybrid warfare developed and practiced by Russia over the past two decades relies - like in the Ukraine crisis - on propaganda, psychological warfare and cyberattacks as much as on conventional firepower Cities like Seattle, uncomfortably close to Joint Base Kitsap, the home of the Pacific Fleets ballistic missile submarines, would likely take some damage. Russia has deployed a number of Su-30 fighters to Syria, aircraft that are capable of striking ground targets as well as those in the air. These tensions aren't new, but historically they have been constrained by the Cold War and by the post-Cold War liberal international order. The Russians recently announced plans for a naval exercise in the eastern Mediterranean this fall, but did not specify exactly when ships would deploy to the region. "We need anti-tank Javelin systems, intelligence and combat drones, fighter jets, helicopters, electronic and signal intelligence systems, radars and sound intelligence systems" to counter Russian military equipment used by Moscow-backed separatists on the eastern front, said Colonel General Victor Muzhenko, the Ukrainian military's top officer. With modern technology and nuclear weapons, some wonder what a new World War would look like. The second, more devastating countervalue scenario involves an all-out use of nukes to destroy the United States ability to wage war, with the side effect of reducing American society to a pre-industrial level of development. Another option for Russia, of course, is to shift to a conventional fight. After an initial burst of interest in the video, the view count didn't increase much until late February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and Putin made remarks alluding to the possible use of nuclear weapons, according to Glaser. Over the summer China conducted tests of its advanced hypersonic missiles, capable of travelling at many times the speed of sound. Having said that, accidents can happen and disagreements between two seemingly rational parties can and do quickly spiral out of control. Other estimates are much higher, but in general there is a high degree of uncertainty about how much of those forces exist only on paper, and how many are truly prepared for combat. The Biden administration and its allies in Europe have taken extraordinary care with the risks of escalation, but Washington does not hold all of the cards and either Kyiv or Moscow might become willing to accept the risk of a wider conflict, a conflict that could develop into World War III. The war has caused global ripples, raising the stakes of disputes that have smoldered for decades. He received his bachelor's from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph.D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Millions more injured in the attacks and unable to reach a hospital would likely succumb to their injuries. While it seems unlikely that a NATO ally would openly attack another NATO ally, past conflicts have brought the two countries up to the brink of war (and sometimes slightly beyond) notwithstanding their alliance commitments. And they started investing massively in a whole host of new technologies.". For defensive purposes, Russian planners would have to recognize the risk of NATO coming to Kiev's assistance. The lesson is that as long as nuclear weapons exist, there is a possibility they could be used. But it has not yet provided any offensive weaponry and ammunition, and it has not threatened military action against Russia. ", You can listen Frank Gardner's full report on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, guest-edited by General Sir Nick Carter, the former Chief of Defence Staff, Russia launches pre-dawn missile attack on Ukraine, Chaos at port as thousands rush to leave Sudan, Suspected IS chief killed in Syria, Turkey says. It is important for cooler heads to prevail and to provide diplomatic off-ramps for this conflict.. Indeed, there were already reports of some in the run up to the warlike when hackers reportedly targeted. It would likely involve more than 3,000 warheads used by both sides, killing well over 100 million Americans and Russians. Here's what it might look like. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. If war does break out it could rapidly become more destructive than the Russia-Ukraine War, with conventional and nuclear weapons exacting a horrific toll on both sides. Russia has announced successful tests of its Zircon hypersonic cruise missile, proclaiming that it can defeat any defences anywhere in the world. The armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has aptly demonstrated what future warfare will look like, with its swarms of kamikaze drones constantly on their enemy's tail. No matter what, it would be a nightmare for Europe's leaders. The United States signalled Friday that a. As U.S. officials watch that unfold, they are "clearly motivated by concerns that at least locally, Russia has the potential to generate superior forces," said David Ochmanek, a former Pentagon official who is now a defense analyst at the RAND Corp. And looming over the entire U.S.-Russian relationship are their nuclear arsenals. "It is good for us to be aware how they fight," said Evelyn Farkas, deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia, in an interview with Military Times on Sept. 10. Scenario 1: decapitation. The Ukrainian military was on alert on its easter border with Russia on Thursday amid reports that separatist forces launched attacks on a border crossing near the village of Marinyvka. AFP PHOTO / VASILY MAXIMOV (Photo credit should read VASILY MAXIMOV/AFP/Getty Images). More than 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia may be headed for the second act of dissolution if Ukraine wins the war. Russia has repeatedly sent military aircraft into Baltic airspace, patrolled submarines in the Baltic Sea and allegedly mounted cyber-attacks. A crucial factor in this equation is Russia's alliance with Iran, another key Syrian ally. "As far as one can tell, this is the most serious crisis with a potential nuclear dimension involving Russia and the United States/NATO since the end of the Cold War, even if the risk of a nuclear war is still considered 'small'as many analysts would argue," Alex Glaser, one the creators of Plan A, told Newsweek. Top editors give you the stories you want delivered right to your inbox each weekday. Explore in 3D: The dazzling crown that makes a king. They've also asked for anti-aircraft guns and more equipment to neutralize enemy snipers, he told Military Times. At first glance, this may look like any other NATO training exercise, but think again. "I think we're going to have a very dangerous period within the next five to 10 years when a lot of the downsizing is going to happen. By FP Contributors. Is climate change killing Australian wine? There may also be a significant public backlash against a change of government led from Moscow. "The static airpower picture would favor the Russians because they have a lot of capability in terms of air defense and a variety of tactical and cruise and ballistic missiles," said Paul Schwartz, a Russian military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. VideoThe secret mine that hid the Nazis' stolen treasure, LGBT troops take love for Eurovision to front line, Why an Indian comedian is challenging fake news rules, What Europe's royals could teach King Charles. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has, if nothing else, demonstrated that major wars can still happen despite the best efforts of the international community. But there's one area where the West is falling dangerously behind Russia and China. 2023 BBC. Video, The secret mine that hid the Nazis' stolen treasure, MasterChef Australia host Jock Zonfrillo dies, US principal visits David sculpture after nudity row, Adidas sued by investors over Kanye West deal, UK chip giant Arm files for blockbuster share sale, US bank makes last ditch bid to find rescuer, Pope urges Hungarians to 'open doors' to migrants. So far, the administration has pledged only "nonlethal aid" for training and gear such as Humvees, small drones and radar. Kyle Mizokami is a writer on defense and security issues and has been at Popular Mechanics since 2015. But over time I think we would be able to degrade it. A war between NATO and Russia would be tantamount to World War 3. During the defense's cross-examination of E. Jean Carroll, Trump's attorney asked the writer why she "did not scream" when she was "supposedly raped.". Unlike conventional war, a nuclear war is not something that happens out of the blue. As a result, Ukraine has found itself with no country willing to actively defend it against nuclear-armed Russia for fear of entering into a nuclear war. For now, Obama shows no signs of conceding to Russian control the regions Ukraine has controlled for decades. (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin). "The actual fatalities would be significantly increased by deaths occurring from the collapse of medical systems, as well as nuclear fallout and other long-term effects, including a possible global-scale nuclear winter.". It remains unlikely that any of these disputes will develop into a global conflict, although the Ukraine War already has some aspects of great power war. First off, "future warfare" is already here. Russian has lined thousands of troops and large tank and artillery units along its Ukrainian border. That is why just last month, leaders of five nuclear weapons states, including the United States and Russia, called the avoidance of war between nuclear powers their foremost responsibilities, and affirmed that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.. Well assume Russia strikes first. Fighting back would mean launching what remained of its ICBMs and any bombers that survived, using them to hunt down remaining Russian nuclear weapons. "A crisis like the one we are currently facing often results in miscommunication between parties, exacerbated by the fact that there remain very few active lines of communication between Russia and the U.S./NATO," said Glaser, who is an associate professor at Princeton's School of Public and International Affairs and Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering. It looked like World War I. He lives in San Francisco. Russia; A World War Could Break Out in the Arctic . The aggression in the Baltics, especially Estonia, which has a large Russian-speaking minority, has been more ambiguous than Moscow's overt operations in Ukraine and Syria. The celebrated realist Hans J. Morgenthau wrote, in his rules for effective diplomacy, that you should. Even prior to this year, Russia and the United States had been abandoning long-standing nuclear arms control treaties, commenced the development of new kinds of nuclear weapons, and expanded the range of circumstances in which these weapons might be used. Kyles articles have appeared at The Daily Beast, U.S. A screenshot taken from the Plan A nuclear war simulation. The ICBMs would target Americas nukes, including the 400 ICBM silos sprinkled across the western United States, nuclear bomber bases in Missouri and Louisiana, and missile submarine bases at Kings Bay, Georgia, and Kitsap, Washington. This Is What a Nuclear War Between the U.S. and Russia Could Look Like, U.S. Army National Guard photo by Sgt. KYIV "After Ukraine, Chechnya," says the Chechen commander fighting on Kyiv's side. A ceasefire in eastern Ukraine also appears to be holding, although each side remains wary, and local parliamentary elections set to take place Oct. 25 may be upended by pro-Russian separatists, who aim to hold their own elections. While fighting has thus far remained quite limited, the desire to defend national prestige can rapidly become poisonous for even the wisest and most sensible leaders. ", Russian soldiers stand in line to pay their last respect to Mikhail Kalashnikov, the designer of the iconic AK-47 assault rifle that was the favoured weapon of guerrillas worldwide, during his funeral ceremony in Mytishchi outside Moscow on December 27, 2013. Before its weapon systems are destroyed, Russia fires missiles launched from silos, road-mobile vehicles, and submarines. The war has had a ripple effect on the world stage, dramatically increasing the stakes of disputes that have quietly smoldered for decades. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. For a conventional operation, Russia also could bring assets from its Northern Fleet, which frequently patrols the North Atlantic, into the Baltic theater to support a larger action. After all, there is little reason to trust Russia at this point. Did they look at how much in demand are Russian resources before the sanctioning Russia? Since its annexation of Crimea in early 2014, Russia has steadily expanded its military presence in the region. Here, Russian forces would seek to reinforce the breakaway regions in the Donbas with . "That's the basis of the sanctions that the United States and our partners imposed on Russia. However, Barmin said, "it is doubtful that Russia has the capacity to emerge as a leading power in [the Middle East] in the near future because its presence in the region is limited if you compare it to that of the United States. So is it all doom and gloom? The result would be near-total devastation with global consequences. While it is not clear if Russian President Vladimir Putin would ever go so far as to use nuclear weapons, the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine has led to a spike in discussions about the potential outbreak of nuclear war. CNBC takes a look at the possible outcomes for Ukraine and what might happen in each of them: 1. AFP PHOTO / ANDREY KRONBERG (Photo credit should read ANDREY KRONBERG/AFP/Getty Images). Before covering the military, he worked as a reporter for the Houston Chronicle in Texas, the Albany Times Union in New York and The Associated Press in Milwaukee. But modern wars are not toe-to-toe conventional fights; geography, politics and terrain inevitably give one side an advantage. The nuclear surprise attack, known as a first strike, would primarily target Americas land-based nuclear arsenal. The four-minute audiovisual piece called "Plan A", which was developed by researchers associated with Princeton University's Program on Science & Global Security (SGS), has seen renewed interest since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has caused concerns about nuclear war. Recent tests of US systems, by contrast, have not gone well. There'd be attempts to "blind" the other by knocking out communications, including satellites, or even cutting the vital undersea cables that carry data. The dynamic between the two states seems driven by impatience; an impatience in the North that the world still refuses to take it seriously despite its magnificent nuclear weapons, and an impatience in the South that a nation of great significance remains burdened by its inept and retrograde sibling.